Predicting Successful and Unsuccessful Transitions from School to Work Using Sequence Methods

Policy makers recognise the importance of early identification of young people that are likely to end up jobless on entry to the adult labour market. This paper uses sequencing techniques to characterise 712 young people’s transitions from school to work into ‘types’, with jobless types interpreted as unsuccessful transitions. A logit model is estimated for transition type using a collection of static individual, family and school characteristics. This allows us to identify which young people are most likely to experience unsuccessful transitions into the adult labour market. Policy makers might use such information to target social and educational policy more effectively to promote social inclusion. Young people with the following characteristics at age 16 (in order of importance) are more likely to experience an unsuccessful transition into the adult labour market: ! Poor qualifications; ! Coming from a disadvantaged area of Northern Ireland; ! Having an unemployed father; ! Coming from a single parent family; ! Being female, and ! Being Catholic.